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| Tekijä: | Savenkov, Anthony |
| Työn nimi: | Ranking European Union countries on their long-term prospects for housing price growth: a composite index |
| Julkaisutyyppi: | Diplomityö |
| Julkaisuvuosi: | 2016 |
| Sivut: | (4) + 69 s. + liitt. 20 Kieli: eng |
| Koulu/Laitos/Osasto: | Insinööritieteiden korkeakoulu |
| Oppiaine: | Real Estate Investment and Finance (M3009) |
| Valvoja: | Falkenbach, Heidi |
| Ohjaaja: | Falkenbach, Heidi |
| Elektroninen julkaisu: | http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:aalto-201606172615 |
| Sijainti: | P1 Ark Aalto 4141 | Arkisto |
| Avainsanat: | real estate index cross-border real estate investment housing price movement housing inflation European Union house prices dwelling price growth prospects |
| Tiivistelmä (eng): | A conceptual model - in the form of composite index - is put forward to highlight the comparative inflation potential of national, residential real estate markets of the European Union. The composite index is formed from a suite of economic, demographic, sociological, and environmental variables. They are drawn from the literature as the best indicators of long-term, aggregate housing price growth for the given context. The variables proposed are: future economic growth; future population growth; future population youthfulness; super-normal infrastructure investment; future mortgage growth; latent demand; future climate; supply inelasticity; and cyclical undervaluation. These variables are represented in the composite index by datasets from, respectively: The Atlas of Economic Complexity; United Nations World Population Prospects; Eurostat Europop; European Commission Structural Investment Funding allocation; European Mortgage Federation Hypostat (outstanding loans to disposable income); Eurostat SILC (adults living with parents), and World Bank annual remittance data; Meldelsohn et al. (2000); Nordregio Mountain Areas in Europe, and Eurostat Land Cover (water and wetlands); and the OECD Analytical House Price Database (index price to income ratio). The results indicate differences between countries in their profile for prospective long-term price growth. "Emerging" and "peripheral" countries dominate the high rankings. When compared against countries' current average dwelling price, the results imply long term price convergence. |
| ED: | 2016-07-17 |
INSSI tietueen numero: 54045
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