| Tekijä: | Keuzenkamp, H. A. |
| Otsikko: | A precursor to Muth: Tinbergen's 1932 model of rational expectations |
| Lehti: | Economic Journal
1991 : SEP, VOL. 101:408, p. 1245-1253 |
| Asiasana: | RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS MACROECONOMICS ECONOMETRIC MODELS |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | Today, following Muth's famous 1961 article, we speak of rational expectations revolution in macroeconomics. In the early thirties, Tinbergen developed the first macro-econometric model. He was the first and, for nearly thirty years the only one who made the link between dynamic economic theory, expectations and uncertainty, and probability theory. Tinbergen's work and the introduction of rational expectations are discussed in detail to show the way that led to Muth's present theory and today's views. A clear link is shown between Tinbergen's model and our present understanding of rational expectations. |
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