| Tekijä: | Funke, N. |
| Otsikko: | Predicting recessions: some evidence for Germany |
| Lehti: | Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv
1997 : VOL. 133:1, p. 90-102 |
| Asiasana: | ECONOMICS GERMANY RECESSION |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | Minor fluctuations of economic activity are hard to predict and almost inevitable given the sensitivity of the underlying components to changes in expectations. However, timely recognition of large slowdowns, i.e., recessions, would be of obvious value to policymakers. Recent empirical work for the United States by the Federal Reserve Board economists suggests that the development of monetary and financial variables may serve as the useful leading indicator of economic recessions. |
SCIMA