| Tekijä: | West, M. Harrison, J. |
| Otsikko: | Subjective intervention in formal models. |
| Lehti: | Journal of Forecasting
1989 : JAN-MAR, VOL. 8:1, p. 33-53 |
| Asiasana: | FORECASTING TECHNIQUES BAYESIAN STATISTICS DYNAMIC MODELS |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | Success in forecasting using mathematical/statistical models requires that the models be open to intervention by the user. In practice, a model is only one component of a forecasting system, which also includes the user/forecasters as integral components. Interaction between the user and the model is necessary to adequately cater for events and changes that go beyond the existing form of the model. Bayesian forecasting models, open to interventions, are examined. Some principles of intervention are discussed. The most important theoretical results are summarized. Two example time series are considered to illustrate why and when such interventions may be necessary to sustain predictive performance. |
SCIMA