| Tekijä: | O'Connor, M. Lawrence, M. |
| Otsikko: | An examination of the accuracy of judgemental confidence intervals in time series forecasting. |
| Lehti: | Journal of Forecasting
1989 : APR-JUN, VOL. 8:2, p. 141-155 |
| Asiasana: | FORECASTING TIME SERIES |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | The accuracy (calibration) of judgemental and selected statistical confidence intervals in time series forecasting is examined. Using the forecasts and forecast errors produced by the deseasonalized single exponential smoothing method, three statistical intervals were produced utilizing three assumptions about the distribution of errors: the normal distribution, the empirical distribution and the distribution based on the Chebyshev inequality. Using 33 real-life time series, results indicated that the judgemental confidence intervals were initially excessively overconfident, thus confirming the finding of Lichtenstein et al. (1982). However, calibration of judgemental intervals improved considerably with feedback. |
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