| Tekijä: | Pfeifer, P. E. Bodily, S. E. |
| Otsikko: | A test of space - time ARMA modelling and forecasting of hotel data. (!Space-time models) |
| Lehti: | Journal of Forecasting
1990 : MAY-JUN, VOL. 9:3, p. 255-272 |
| Asiasana: | FORECASTING MODELS HOTEL AND CATERING INDUSTRY |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | The application of space-time autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) modelling to demand-related data from eight hotels from a single hotel chain in a large USA city is described. Important spatial characteristics of the space-time process are incorporated into the model using a simple weighting matrix based on driving distances between the hotels. Using a hold-out sample, the forecasting performance of this space-time approach was found to be superior to eight separate univariate ARMA models. The simplicity of the proposed model form will often be an advantage in empirical tests of forecasting performance and when the models are implemented in business situations. |
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