| Tekijä: | Mahmoud, E. Motwani, J. Rice, G. |
| Otsikko: | Forecasting US exports: an illustration using time series and econometric models |
| Lehti: | Omega
1990 : VOL. 18:4, p. 375-382 |
| Asiasana: | INTERNATIONAL TRADE FORECASTING USA TIME SERIES ECONOMETRIC MODELS ECONOMIC GROWTH |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | Forecasting exports efficiently enables policy makers to plan more appropriately and help to improve the trade balance and economic growth. Exports have usually been forecast using econometric models. The purpose is to investigate the accuracy of various simple time series methods for forecasting exports and to compare the results to some econometric forecasting efforts. The findings suggest that simple time series methods can provide as accurate if not more accurate forecasts than an econometric approach. Future research should focus closely on the reasons for the different levels of accuracy achieved by the different time series method and econometric methods when forecasting exports, and on careful data analysis. |
SCIMA