haku: @freeterm national accounts, quantitative analysis / yhteensä: 1
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| Tekijä: | Potocnik, J. Majcen, B. |
| Otsikko: | Slovenija in Evropska unija: analiza moznih posledic priblizevanja z modelom splosnega ravnotezja |
| Lehti: | IB revija
1996 : VOL. 30:1-2, p. 4-18 |
| Asiasana: | |
| Vapaa asiasana: | Slovenia, EU, membership, economy, adjustment, models, general equilibrium, national accounts, quantitative analysis simulation |
| Kieli: | slv |
| Tiivistelmä: | Slovenia is one of the countries in transition who wishes to become a member of the European Union.If Slovenia wants to be fully prepared for this step it is necessary to assess its advantages and disadvantages.There is no doubt that the global aggregate effects on the Slovenian economy will be favourable but the effects on individual sectors or enterprises also deserve some consideration.The most appropriate method of evaluating these effects is to use the general equilibrium model.The computable general equilibrium model (CGE) is based on the social accounting matrix of the Slovenian economy for 1992 , which includes an intersectoral matrix divided in the standard 27 sectors of the NACE classification.A number of simulations were used to analyse the consequences of approaching the EU (implementation of a new customs tariff, initiation of agreements, full enforcement of agreements). The simulations were based on the assumptions of different economic policies.They were divided in three separate groups: analysis of sectoral or structural effects, analysis of global macroeconomic or sectoral effects, and the analysis of the scenario from the Strategy for Economic Development of Slovenia.The analyses confirmed that positive consequences of approaching the EU may be expected.But negative effects may occur in some production sectors.The greatest difficulties will be experienced by the domestic market-oriented sectors.The consequences of approaching the EU will depend also on the economic policies adopted by the government.The problems arising from the database year 1992 and limitations of the model approach call for some caution when interpreting the results of modelling. |
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