haku: @author Starbuck, W. H. / yhteensä: 10
viite: 2 / 10
| Tekijä: | Barnett, M. L. Starbuck, W. H. Pant, P. N. |
| Otsikko: | Which Dreams Come True? Endogeneity, Industry Structure and Forecasting Accuracy |
| Lehti: | Industrial and Corporate Change
2003 : AUG, VOL.12:4, p. 653-672 |
| Asiasana: | FORECASTING FORECASTING TECHNIQUES USA MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | Law, a forecast that has proven quite accurate for almost 40 years. The authors illustrate how expectations that Moor's Law will continue to be accurate actually make it accurate. Based on the insights of this case, the authors hypothesize that two factors facilitate such self-fulfilling forecasts and so make accuracy more possible. The authors test these hypotheses on a set of 3142 forecasts about US manufacturing industries during the 1970s. The authors find that high industry concentration and high control over the predicted variable tend to increase the accuracy of forecasts. |
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