haku: @indexterm BANKRUPTCY FORECASTING / yhteensä: 11
viite: 5 / 11
| Tekijä: | Philosophov, L.V. Philosophov, V.L. |
| Otsikko: | Corporate bankruptcy prognosis: An attempt at a combined prediction of the bankruptcy event and time interval of its occurrence |
| Lehti: | International Review of Financial Analysis
2002 : VOL. 11:3, p. 375-406 |
| Asiasana: | Companies Bankruptcy forecasting Efficiency |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | This paper considers the problem of predicting a firm's bankruptcy with simultaneous assessment of the time interval within which the bankruptcy must occur. The paper carries out anew a comparative statistical analysis of various financial indices and identifies four relatively independent factors having remarkable potential in bankruptcy prognosis. Two of these characterize the quantity and quality of corporate debt, while the other two characterize the ability to pay the debt. The prognostic problem is considered as multi-alternative problem of the Statistical Decision Theory. It is found that the optimal rules for the prediction of a firm's bankruptcy within the next year, within the next 2 years, etc. must be different. The efficiency of the variants of the prognostic rules developed in the paper is assessed. It is shown that in comparable conditions these rules are more efficient than Altman's familiar Z score rule and tested logistic rules. |
SCIMA