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| Tekijä: | Artis, M. |
| Otsikko: | Predicting turning points in the UK inflation cycle |
| Lehti: | Economic Journal
1995 : SEP, VOL. 105:432, p. 1145-1164 |
| Asiasana: | ECONOMICS INFLATION UNITED KINGDOM |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | Inflation targeting is an important component of current UK economic policy, and this paper examines the forecasting of inflation turning points using leading indicators. The authors identify nine complete inflation cycles between 1958 and 1993. Leading indicators are proposed, with composite shorter and longer indicators constructed on the basis of data to June 1992. Overall, the composite indicators give clear prior turning point information with relatively few "false signals". |
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