haku: @author Ayres, R. U. / yhteensä: 13
viite: 4 / 13
| Tekijä: | Ayres, R. U. |
| Otsikko: | The future of technological forecasting. |
| Lehti: | Technological Forecasting and Social Change
1989 : AUG, VOL. 36:1-2, p. 49-60 |
| Asiasana: | TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING FUTURE |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | The focus is on the area of technological forecasting. Better methods of forecasting and planning for the future are needed now as never before. It is argued that the move beyond extrapolation and beyond economics is the sole basis for understanding the dynamics of technological progress. The relation between bottlenecks and breakthroughs is discussed, nothing that the former serve as clues for the latter. Some examples of today's bottlenecks are cited, like information overload, the lack of universal standard or universal translator in computer linguistics, system complexity, and reliance on fossil fuel for energy. |
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