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| Tekijä: | Gollier, C. |
| Otsikko: | Discounting an uncertain future |
| Lehti: | Journal of Public Economics
2002 : AUG, VOL. 85:2, p. 149-166 |
| Asiasana: | Discount rate Cost benefit analysis Cost effectiveness |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | The objective of this paper is to determine the socially optimal discount rate for public investment projects that entail costs and benefits in the very long run. The author supposes that there is an exogenous process for the growth of consumption per capita, which is stochastic. Under various conditions on preferences, as positive prudence, decreasing relative risk aversion or decreasing absolute risk aversion, he proves that (1) the fact that growth is uncertain reduces the efficient discount rate at any horizon, and that (2) this discount rate should be smaller for more distant futures. |
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