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| Tekijä: | Dobbs, I. M. |
| Otsikko: | A Bayesian approach to decision-making under ambiguity |
| Lehti: | Economica
1991 : NOV, VOL. 58:232, p.417-440 |
| Asiasana: | DECISION MAKING BAYESIAN STATISTICS STATISTICAL METHODS UNCERTAINTY RANDOM NUMBERS PROBABILITY BIAS |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | From a Bayesian perspective, the distinction between risk and ambiguity is fairly naturally modelled by treating the probabilities associated with given states as themselves random variables. A Bayesian description of ambiguity is presented in which outcomes constitute information which modifies the retrospective evaluation of a course of actions. The model provides an explanation of various violations of the expected utility model. In contrast to recent theories concerning decision-making under ambiguity probabilities are not required to be biased or to be sub- or super-additive. Some experimental tests of ambiguity coherence are also described. |
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