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| Tekijä: | Tol, R. S. J. |
| Otsikko: | Estimates of the damage costs of climate change. Part 2: Dynamic estimates |
| Lehti: | Environmental and Resource Economics
2002 : FEB, VOL. 21:2, p. 135-160 |
| Asiasana: | Environmental economics Climate Change |
| Vapaa asiasana: | Climate change |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | This paper develops a model of climate change impacts that takes account of th dynamics of climate change and the systems affected by it. Impacts are expressed as functions of climate change and 'vulnerability'. Vulnerability is measured by a series of indicators, such as per capita income, population above 65, and economic structure. Impacts are estimated for nine world regions, for the period 2000-2200, for agriculture, forestry, water resources, energy consumption, sea level rise, ecosystems, fatal vector-vorne diseases, and fatal cardiovascular and respiratory disorders. In the short term, the estimated sensitivity of a sector to climate change is found to be the crucial parameter. In the longer term, the change in the vulnerability of the sector is often more important for the total impact. Impacts depend on the time, region, and sector one is looking at. Negative impacts tend to dominate in the later years and in the poorer regions. |
SCIMA