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| Tekijä: | Hepburn, C. (et al.) |
| Otsikko: | Social discounting under uncertainty: A cross-country comparison |
| Lehti: | Journal of Environmental Economics and Management
2009 : MAR, VOL. 57:2, p. 140-150 |
| Asiasana: | USA models interest rates uncertainty climate change |
| Vapaa asiasana: | nuclear power social discounting |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | Using a simple autoregressive model of the United States (U.S.) interest rates (here as: i-rates), e.g. Newell and Pizer (in "Discounting the distant future: How much do uncertain rates increase valuations?" in JEEM, vol. 46, (2003) show the U.S. certainty-equivalent (herein as: c-eq.) discount rate (as: d-rate/s) declining over time. Extending that line of research, this paper estimates both autoregressive and regime-switching (here as: reg-sw.) models of real i-rates to define c-eq. d- rate/s in Australia, Canada, Germany and the UK. It is found that the reg-sw. model is a better model of past i-rate/s behaviour for all four countries. This model tends to produce a more rapid decline in c-eq. d-rate/s. In the paper, applications are offered to the economics of climate change and nuclear power. |
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