haku: @journal_id 4377 / yhteensä: 171
viite: 152 / 171
| Tekijä: | Gibson, H.D. Tsakalotos, E. |
| Otsikko: | Capital flows and speculative attacks in prospective EU member states |
| Lehti: | Economics of transition
2004 : VOL. 12:3, p. 559-586 |
| Asiasana: | Capital flows Currency Policy European Union Transition economies Models |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | The paper examines the capital flow (hereafter as: cap-fl./cap.fls.) experience of transition economies (here as: tr-econs.) which are also prospective EU members with a view to shedding light on the likely problems they might encounter with exchange rate policy in the run up to euro area membership (hereafter as: into-euro-m-ship.) It is shown that they have been experiencing fairly sizeable cap-fls. since the early 1990s. These flows are explained using two separate models: 1. explaining the level of cap-fls. using panel data from the prospective EU members, 2. concentrating specifically on estimating the probability of a country experiencing downward speculative pressure. In both cases, the contribution of domestic factors and contagion is explored. The results suggest that, while domestic factors have some role to play, it is rather limited. Moreover, there is clear evidence of contagion effects, suggesting that macroeconomic policy in the prospective EU members will be complicated by cap-fls. into-euro-m-ship. |
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