haku: @indexterm FILM INDUSTRY / yhteensä: 175
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| Tekijä: | Sawhney, M. S. Eliashberg, J. |
| Otsikko: | A parsimonious model for forecasting gross box-office revenues of motion pictures |
| Lehti: | Marketing Science
1996 : VOL. 15:2, p. 113-131 |
| Asiasana: | CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR FILM INDUSTRY REVENUE FORECASTING DISTRIBUTION MODELS |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | In the paper, a parsimonious model for forecasting the gross box-office revenues of new motion pictures based on early box office data is developed. The model draws on a queuing theory framework for conceptualizing stochastically the consumer's movie adoption process in two steps; the time to decide to see the new movie and the time to act on the adoption decision. There is an important finding from empirical testing of the model: Motion picture box-office revenue patterns display remarkable empirical regularity. It is found that there are only three classes of adoption patterns, and these can all be represented within the basic model by using a 2-parameter Exponential or Erland-2 probability distribution or a 3-parameter Generalized Gamma distribution. |
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