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| Tekijä: | Forsythe, R. Rietz, T. A. Ross, T. W. |
| Otsikko: | Wishes, expectations and actions: a survey on price formation in election stock markets |
| Lehti: | Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization
1999 : MAY, VOL. 39:1, p. 83-110 |
| Asiasana: | Stock markets Prices Elections |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | With error-prone and biased individual traders, can markets aggregate trader information and produce efficient outcomes? The paper reviews election stock market evidence that suggests this does happen. Individual traders appear biased and error-prone consistently, yet these markets prove quite efficient in predicting election outcomes. In the paper, there is also reviewed work which documents comparable, but substantially different, phenomena in related laboratory markets. In addition, the paper reports the results from a new laboratory session showing how particular biases can be created, mirroring those in election stock markets. Finally, it is discussed how combined laboratory and field experiments can help understanding trader / market interactions. |
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