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| Tekijä: | Sedor, L. M. |
| Otsikko: | An Explanation for Unintentional Optimism in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts |
| Lehti: | Accounting Review
2002 : OCT, VOL. 77:4, p. 731-754 |
| Asiasana: | SCENARIOS FORECASTING ACCOUNTING ANALYTICAL REVIEW |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | Archival studies report that analysts' annual earnings forecasts are optimistic, particularly for firms reporting recent losses. This study addresses whether forecast optimism is an unintentional consequence of analysts' reactions to the structure of information about managers' future plans. The author investigates whether analysts who are forecasting earnings use processes consistent with scenario thinking: envisioning a sequence of events in which proposed actions lead to future outcomes. The author studies professional sell-side analysts in a 2 x 2 between-subjects experiment with the structure of information (scenario vs. list) and the sign of prior earnings (loss vs. profit) as independent variables. |
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