haku: @author Hardie, B. G. S. / yhteensä: 2
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| Tekijä: | Fader, P. S. Hardie, B. G. S. |
| Otsikko: | Forecasting Repeat Sales at CDNOW: A Case Study |
| Lehti: | Interfaces
2001 : MAY-JUN, VOL. 31:3, p. s94-s107 |
| Asiasana: | FORECASTING REPEAT BUYING CASE STUDIES |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | The authors conducted a modeling exercise in conjunction with the online music retailer CDNOW to develop a simple stochastic model of buyer behavior capable of forecasting medium-term aggregate CD purchasing by a cohort of new customers. The authors modeled weekly sales using a finite mixture of beta- geometric distributions with a separate time-varying component to capture nonstationarity in repeat buying. The resulting model car easily is implemented within a standard spreadsheet environment (for example, Microsoft Excel). It does a good job of describing the underlying sales patterns and produces an excellent medium-term forecast. |
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