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Tekijä:Szakmary, A. (et al.)
Otsikko:The predictive power of implied volatility: Evidence from 35 futures markets
Lehti:Journal of Banking and Finance
2003 : NOV, VOL 27:11, p. 2151-2175
Asiasana:Stock markets
Efficiency
Volatility
Forecasting
Options
Models
Vapaa asiasana:Futures
Kieli:eng
Tiivistelmä:Using data from 35 futures options markets from eight separate exchanges, this study tests how well the implied volatilities (IVs) embedded in option prices predict subsequently realized volatility (RV) in the underlying futures. It is found that for this broad array of futures options, IV performs well in a relative sense. For a large majority of the commodities studied, the implieds outperform historical volatility (HV) as a predictor of the subsequently RV in the underlying futures prices over the remaining life of the option.
SCIMA tietueen numero: 248870
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