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| Tekijä: | Walls, W.D. |
| Otsikko: | Modeling movie success when 'Nobody Knows Anything': Conditional stable-distribution analysis of film returns |
| Lehti: | Journal of Cultural Economics
2005 : AUG, VOL 29:3, p. 177-190 |
| Asiasana: | Film industry Success Models Canada USA |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | In this paper, a recently developed statistical (hereafter as: stat-cal.) model is applied explicitly accounting for the extreme uncertainty around film returns. The stable distribution regression (here as: st-dtr-regr.) model (for 'regression model' as: regr-mod.) is used to analyze the conditional distribution (here as: cond-distr.) of box-office returns. The empirical analysis shows that the cond-distr. of film returns has infinite variance, and this invalidates stat-cal. inferences from the often-applied least-squares regr-mod. The estimates of the st-dtr-regr. confirm some earlier results on the statistics of the movie business and the analysis demonstrates how to model box-office success in the movie business where "nobody knows anything". |
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