haku: @author Coshall, J.T. / yhteensä: 2
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| Tekijä: | Coshall, J.T. |
| Otsikko: | Combining volatility and smoothing forecasts of UK demand for international tourism |
| Lehti: | Tourism Management
2009 : AUG, VOL. 30:4, p. 495-511 |
| Asiasana: | volatility forecasting techniques bias United Kingdom tourism |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | Univariate volatility models (volatility as a concept borrowed from Finance) are applied to UK tourism demand to its most popular international destinations. Significant volatility models are found for ten of the twelve destinations examined, showing that the volatility concept is relevant to tourism demand. Volatility models are able to quantify the effects of positive and negative shocks on tourism demand. The impacts of negative shocks vary in magnitude and duration depending on the destination involved and the nature of the shock. These models' capability to forecast has never been evaluated in the tourism field. They are shown to make highly accurate forecasts, but become optimal in combination with forecasts obtained from exponential smoothing models. Two methods of combining individual forecasts are discussed and bias in individual volatility and smoothing models and in their combinations is examined. |
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