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| Tekijä: | MacDonald, R. Wojcik, C. |
| Otsikko: | Catching up: The role of demand, supply and regulated price effects on the real exchange rates of four accession countries |
| Lehti: | Economics of transition
2004 : MAR, VOL. 12:1, p. 153-179 |
| Asiasana: | Foreign exchange Exchange rates Prices Supply Demand Integration European Monetary System European Union Models |
| Vapaa asiasana: | EMU EMS |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | This paper aims mainly to examine the exchange rate behaviour of a group of four transitional, European Union (EU) accession countries, with a view to making policy recommendations as to their full accession to the European Monetary Union (or EMU). A dynamic OLS panel estimator is employed to investigate the relative importance of demand and supply influences on the exchange rates of these countries. The analysis shows that both supply- and demand-side effects are important for the accession countries, although their overall effect on inflation differentials and competitiveness seems to be small. An additional focus of the paper is the examination of the role that administrated, or regulated, prices and the productivity of the distribution sector play in the real exchange rate dynamics. Using a unique database, administrative prices are shown to have been a powerful force behind price and real exchange developments for the group of accession countries (used in this paper). The distribution sector is shown to have an independent effect on the internal price ratio over and above that generated by the Balassa–Samuelson effect. |
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