haku: @journal_id 525 / yhteensä: 244
viite: 21 / 244
| Tekijä: | Wallis, K. F. Whitley, J. D. |
| Otsikko: | Sources of error in forecasts and expectations: U.K. economic models, 1984-8. (!Forecast errors) |
| Lehti: | Journal of Forecasting
1991 : MAY, VOL. 10:3, p. 231-253 |
| Asiasana: | FORECASTING ECONOMETRIC MODELS |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | Evaluations of macroeconomic forecasts rest on descriptive accounts and statistical analysis of forecast errors but provide no analysis of the sources of errors. A comparative analysis of the sources of errors is presented in forecasts for the UK economy published over a recent four-year period by four independent groups. A method of decomposing observed forecast errors so as to distinguish the contributions of forecaster and model is set out. The results show that the forecaster's adjustments make a substantial contribution to forecast performance, a good part of which comes from adjustments that bring the model on track at the start of the period. The published ex-ante forecasts are superior to pure model-based ex-post forecasts. |
SCIMA