haku: @indexterm Forecasting techniques / yhteensä: 246
viite: 58 / 246
| Tekijä: | Rowe, G. Wright, G. Bolger, F. |
| Otsikko: | Delphi. A reevaluation of research and theory |
| Lehti: | Technological Forecasting and Social Change
1991 : MAY, VOL. 39:3, p.235-251 |
| Asiasana: | FORECASTING TECHNIQUES DELPHI TECHNIQUE TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING RESEARCH THEORIES |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | The paper set out to critically examine the Delphi technique in order to determine whether it fulfills its intentions of alleviating the process loss which is typical of interacting groups. Methodological and technical problems arising in the experimental studies are examined, and it is concluded that these problems often diverge considerably from the original concept of Delphi, making comparisons difficult. It is argued that inadequacies in the nature of feedback typically supplied in applications of Delphi tend to ensure that any small gains in the resolution of "process loss" are often offset by the removal of any opportunity for group "process gain". Some solutions to this dilemma are advocated. |
SCIMA