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| Tekijä: | Cho, Y. Y. Kim, S. H. |
| Otsikko: | A Delphi technology forecasting approach using a semi-Markov concept |
| Lehti: | Technological Forecasting and Social Change
1991 : NOV, VOL. 40:3, p.273-287 |
| Asiasana: | TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING FORECASTING TECHNIQUES DELPHI TECHNIQUE TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE PERSONAL COMPUTERS R&D PLANNING |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | A new technology forecasting approach based on the semi-Markov concept is presented. The proposed method of forecasting is simple and practical in its application to the case of sequential technology development process. The model has been implemented efficiently on personal computer with easy access to a vast amount of data. It will be helpful for R and D planners or project managers in the post-analysis of Delphi forecasts. The semi-Markov concept, giving an adequate description of the real-word environment of technology forecasts, will provide, as designed, the possibility of using unrevealed information in a Delphi survey. |
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