haku: @author Peel, D. A. / yhteensä: 25
viite: 7 / 25
| Tekijä: | Holden, K. Peel, D. A. |
| Otsikko: | Unbiasedness, efficiency and the combination of economic forecasts. (!Combining forecasts)(!Unbiased forecasts) |
| Lehti: | Journal of Forecasting
1989 : JUL-SEP, VOL. 8:3, p. 175-188 |
| Asiasana: | ECONOMIC FORECASTING |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | The problem of determining whether forecasts are unbiased is examined. The implications this has for combining different forecasts are considered. The practical issues of how economic forecasts might be combined are discussed. An empirical illustration is presented showing the procedures in which the properties of UK forecasts from the London Business School, the National Institute, the Henley Centre for Forecasting, Phillips and Drew and the OECD are examined. This paper provides a novel interpretation of the standard test for unbiasedness of a forecast in which outcomes are regressed on a constant and the forecast. The strengths and weaknesses of the proposed procedure are analyzed. |
SCIMA