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| Tekijä: | Amato, A. Tronzano, M. |
| Otsikko: | Fiscal policy, debt management and exchange rate credibility: Lessons from the recent Italian experience |
| Lehti: | Journal of Banking and Finance
2000 : JUN, VOL. 24:6, p. 921-943 |
| Asiasana: | Fiscal policy Debt management Exchange rates European Monetary System European Union Italy |
| Vapaa asiasana: | EMU EMS |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | This paper explores some potential determinants of exchange rate credibility with reference to the Italian experience of the 1990s. The analysis relies on non-linear framework emphasizing shifts btw. credible and non-credible states, and assuming a significant degree of persistence in the above regimes. Almost all fiscal and debt management indicators display significant effects on devaluation expectations. The main policy implications of the paper are that a restrictive fiscal stance, a lengthening of average debt maturity and an increase in the share of foreign-denominated debt are crucial to stabilize the Lira exchange rate and to qualify Italy in the former group of countries which will join EMU. |
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