haku: @author Harvey, N. / yhteensä: 3
viite: 3 / 3
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| Tekijä: | Harvey, N. |
| Otsikko: | Effects of difficulty on judgemental probability forecasting of control response efficacy. (!Judgemental forecasting) |
| Lehti: | Journal of Forecasting
1990 : JUL-SEP, VOL. 9:4, p. 373-387 |
| Asiasana: | FORECASTING PROBABILITY |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | A judgement control task was framed as a problem of medical decision making. The control parameter of a recursive system (a patient) was set initially so that the output (a diagnostic index) fell outside a designated criterion range (corresponding to health). Subjects were told to bring the system's output into a designated range by resetting this control parameter (by specifying the dose of a drug). After each of these control responses, they made a probabilistic forecast that it would have the desired effect. It was found that these forecasts were more overconfident when the control task was |
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