haku: @author Vira, J. / yhteensä: 3
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| Tekijä: | Lehtil, A. Silvennoinen, P. Vira, J. |
| Otsikko: | A belief network model for forecasting within the electricity sector. |
| Lehti: | Technological Forecasting and Social Change
1990 : SEP, VOL. 38:2, p. 135-150 |
| Asiasana: | DECISION MAKING ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY ENERGY FORECASTS SUPPLY AND DEMAND FINLAND SIMULATION MODELS |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | The objectives of this study were twofold: to create a model that could simulate the past capacity expansion decisions within the electricity sector and to apply this model for building future supply/demand scenarios for electricity. It was assumed that the basic factors underlying capacity decisions and demand formation remain effective in spite of possible changes in circumstances and relative weight of the factors. The simulation was based on a network model that describes the reasoning behind the supply decisions. To illustrate the advantages of this approach the model is validated by reconstructing the demand and supply changes in Finland over the period from 1971 to 1987. |
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