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| Tekijä: | Willeke, A. |
| Otsikko: | Risikoanalyse in der Energiewirtschaft |
| Lehti: | Schmalenbachs Zeitschrift für Betriebswirtschaftliche Forschung
1998 : VOL. 50:12, p. 1146-1164 |
| Asiasana: | RISK ANALYSIS RISK MANAGEMENT INVESTMENT ANALYSIS ENERGY INDUSTRY GERMANY |
| Kieli: | ger |
| Tiivistelmä: | Risk analysis by numerical simulation is often recommended in literature as a powerful tool for investment decision making, in particular in the field of investment project appraisal. Despite the obvious advantages the methodology is today not widely used for industrial purposes. Due to the anticipated increase of market volatility after liberaliza- tion of the German electricity market risk simulation is seen as an important part of utilities' risk management. By applying risk simulation on the cost comparison of future power plants practical aspects of the methodology have been tested. The experience gained from practical use shows that due to the existence of commercial computer software risk evaluation by Monte-Carlo-simulation and rank correlation sensitivity analysis should no longer be treated as sophisticated methods for specialists. |
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