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| Tekijä: | Kulendran, N. Witt, S. F. |
| Otsikko: | Leading indicator tourism forecasts |
| Lehti: | Tourism Management
2003 : OCT, VOL. 24:5, p. 503-510 |
| Asiasana: | Tourism Forecasting Country comparisons |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | Leading indicators have been widely used in general business forecasting situations, but only rarely in a tourism context. In this study leading indicator transfer function models are developed to generate forecasts of international tourism demand from the United Kingdom to six major destinations. The out-of-sample forecasting accuracy is compared with the accuracy of forecasts generated by univariate ARIMA and error correlation models. The time series models outperform the ECM for shortterm forecasting, but the ECM generates accurate long-term forecasts. |
SCIMA