haku: @author Tichy, G. / yhteensä: 4
viite: 2 / 4
| Tekijä: | Tichy, G. |
| Otsikko: | Erwartungsbildung und Konjunkturforschung: Axiomatik versus Erhebungen = Expectation and research into economic cycles. Axiomatics versus growth |
| Lehti: | IFO-Studien
1992 : NO. 1. p.45-82 |
| Asiasana: | BUSINESS CYCLES MACROECONOMIC MODELS RECESSION |
| Kieli: | ger |
| Tiivistelmä: | The model of Rational Expectations assumes that expections are formed mechanically by solving the true model of the economy:expectations therefore are endogenous. The model regarded as true by the agents may change over the business cycle as well over the long cycle. The paper presents some preliminary empirical evidence in favour of such hypothesis The same inventory-sales ratio is regarded as too low by entrepreneurs in booms and as too high in recessions, while the same is not true for the desired order-sales ratio, wich does not change over the cycle. The order-sales ratio however does change over long period. The divergent evaluation of identical facts in boom and recession as well as in the sixties/seventies and eighties cannot be explained easily by the economic model. |
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