haku: @author Fader, P.S. / yhteensä: 4
viite: 3 / 4
| Tekijä: | Moe, W.W. Fader, P.S. |
| Otsikko: | Fast-track article: Using advance purchase orders to forecast new product sales |
| Lehti: | Marketing Science
2002 : SUMMER, VOL. 21:3, p. 347-364 |
| Asiasana: | Marketing Forecasting Corporate planning Products Sales Models USA |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | Marketers have long struggled with developing forecasts of new products before their launch. This article focuses on one data source, advance purchase orders, that has been available to retailers for many years but has rarely been tied together with post launch sales data. A duration model is put forth that incorporates the basic concepts of new product diffusion, using a mixture of two distributions: one representing the behaviour of innovators and one representing the behaviour of followers. The resulting mixed-Weibull model specification can accommodate a wide variety of possible sales patterns. This flexibility makes the model well-suited for an experiential product category. The paper incorporates product-specific covariates and uses hierarchical Bayes methods to link the two customer segments together while accommodating heterogeneity across products. It is found that this model fits a variety of sales patterns far better than do a pair of benchmark models. More importantly, it is demonstrated the ability to forecast new album sales before the actual launch of the album, based only on the pattern of advance orders. |
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