haku: @author Lindley, D. V. / yhteensä: 4
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| Tekijä: | Lindley, D. V. |
| Otsikko: | Using expert advice on a skew judgmental distribution. |
| Lehti: | Operations Research
1987 : SEP-OCT, VOL. 35:5, p. 716-721 |
| Asiasana: | DECISION MAKING PROBABILITY |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | Decision making is often complicated because the precise value of some crucial quantity is unknown. One way for a decision maker to procure help in resolving such a decision problem is to ask the opinion of an expert. The advice often comes in form of fractiles of a probability distribution. The problem discussed is how to utilize the expert's information by the decision maker in situations when the expert's uncertainty is not symmetric around some central estimate. Key ingredient is the decision maker's opinion of the expert. With enough fractiles provided, information about skewness of distribution is available. |
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