haku: @author Ayton, P. / yhteensä: 4
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| Tekijä: | Wright, G. Saunders, C. Ayton, P. |
| Otsikko: | The consistency, coherence and calibration of holistic, decomposed and recomposed judgemental probability forecasts. |
| Lehti: | Journal of Forecasting
1988 : JUL-SEP, VOL. 7:3, p. 185-199 |
| Asiasana: | FORECASTING |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | An empirical investigation is made of the relationship between the consistency, coherence and validity of probability judgments in a real-world forecasting context. The results indicate that these measures of the adequacy of an individual's probability assessments are not so closely related as anticipated. The difference in forecasting response and performance between simple and compound holistic forecasts is examined. Applications of normative decision theory are discussed Research methodology is outlined, literature about the topic is reviewed. Implications for forecasting are summarized. A paradigm for further studies is provided. |
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