haku: @author Ascher, W. / yhteensä: 4
viite: 2 / 4
| Tekijä: | Ascher, W. |
| Otsikko: | Limits of "Expert systems" for political-economic forecasting. |
| Lehti: | Technological Forecasting and Social Change
1989 : AUG, VOL. 36:1-2, p. 137-151 |
| Asiasana: | EXPERT SYSTEMS FORECASTING POLITICS ECONOMIC FORECASTING |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | The widespread anticipation that expert systems can replace judgmental input with explicit rules in political and economic forecasting is challenged. Formal rules, based on expert judgment, have consistently failed to live up to expectations. It is insisted that there is an implicit rejection of precisely those higher levels of the knowledge structure that the human expert brings to bear. For example, the human expert may introduce rules that are not be preexisting for any given application, rules that work with the entire gestalt. The knowledge engineer's model of the expert system is only as good as his or her understanding of the superstructure of the expert's thinking about the subject, for example, the way he fits together multiple perspectives. |
SCIMA