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| Tekijä: | Schweidel, D.A. Fader, P.S. |
| Otsikko: | Dynamic changepoints revisited: An evolving process model of new product sales |
| Lehti: | International Journal of Research in Marketing
2009 : JUN, VOL. 26:2, p. 119-124 |
| Asiasana: | new products sales consumers purchasing models |
| Vapaa asiasana: | nonstationarity |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | This paper presents a new framework in order to model the trial of and repeat purchasing (hereafter as: p-g.) of a new product. The framework assumes consumers progressing through two p-g. states, becoming more regular in their inter-purchase (as: prchs.) times with gained experience with the product through repeat prchs. More specifically, there is the move from an initial state of exponential p-g. to a "steady state" characterized by a more regular Erlang-2 timing distribution. The proposed model is very flexible, nesting a number of existing models, and making it possible to explain a wide range of observed behavioural patterns. This evolving process model is applied to the datasets used by Fader, Hardie, and Huang (2004). The results are compared with a number of competing models. There is found empirical evidence to support the use of a two-state model since it yields relevant insights and improved empirical performance. |
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