haku: @author Wei, Weixian / yhteensä: 5
viite: 3 / 5
| Tekijä: | Wei, Weixian |
| Otsikko: | Structural change and forecast of exchange rate (original in Chinese) |
| Lehti: | Forecasting (c)
1999 : 4, p.31-33 |
| Asiasana: | EXCHANGE RATES ECONOMIC FORECASTING |
| Kieli: | chn |
| Tiivistelmä: | It is proved by practices that technical forecast method is always more effective than basic analysis forecast method, on the basis that using mean square forecast error as assessing criterion. This paper demonstrated in theory perspective that when the sequence of exchange rate does not engender structural change, the predictive effect of real model is superior to random floating model; however, if the sequence of exchange rate engenders structural change, random floating model can make less mean square forecast errors than real structural model. |
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