haku: @author Gordon, T. J. / yhteensä: 5
viite: 4 / 5
| Tekijä: | Gordon, T. J. |
| Otsikko: | Futures research : did it meet its promise? Can it meet its promise? |
| Lehti: | Technological Forecasting and Social Change
1989 : AUG, VOL. 36:1-2, p. 21-26 |
| Asiasana: | FUTURE STUDIES FORECASTING |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | The state of the art of forecasting is pondered. Futures research is believed to be still largely in the preparadigm state. Some paradigms are listed that may provide a setting for the field. Three types of tools are examined: judgement, modelling, and simulation. While there have been a number of interesting attempts to improve forecasting through judgement, progress has been slow. Although progress is evident, so are the limitations in modelling complex systems. There is recognition that the future that is unknown but discoverable through research must be differentiated from the future that is unknowable. Much wider awareness and acceptance of futures research is seen today. |
SCIMA