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Tekijä: | Clarke, J. Subramanian, A. |
Otsikko: | Dynamic forecasting behavior by analysts: Theory and evidence |
Lehti: | Journal of Financial Economics
2006 : APR, VOL. 80:1, p. 81-113 |
Asiasana: | forecasting careers employment risk models |
Kieli: | eng |
Tiivistelmä: | This study develops a multi-period learning model to examine the relation btw. analysts' forecasting behaviour and their performance. In a competitive market for banking services, the surplus and the analyst's payoff are convex in her reputation. The convexity and the presence of employment risk lead to a U-shaped relation. There is support found for the predictions in this study's empirical analysis. Significant underperformers (outperformers) face higher (lower) employment risk and are more likely to issue bolder forecasts. |
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