haku: @indexterm Macroeconomics / yhteensä: 544
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| Tekijä: | Turner, D. S. |
| Otsikko: | The role of judgement in macroeconomic forecasting. (!Judgemental forecasting) |
| Lehti: | Journal of Forecasting
1990 : JUL-SEP, VOL. 9:4, p. 315-345 |
| Asiasana: | ECONOMIC FORECASTING MACROECONOMICS |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | Influence and feasibility of judgemental adjustments in macroeconomic forecasting is examined, using two particular forecasts for the UK economy. It was found that in some cases such adjustment has a major effect on the forecasts, and can also explain some of the differences in two rival forecasts, and can also explain some of the differences in two rival forecasts. The number of adjustments, however, for which this is true is small. An implication of this result is that, if these forecasts can be regarded as typical, then macroeconomic forecasters should be urged to give a reasonable account of the role of judgemental adjustments in their forecasts. |
SCIMA