haku: @indexterm MONEY MARKETS / yhteensä: 577
viite: 161 / 577
| Tekijä: | Gauci, B. Baumgartner, T. |
| Otsikko: | Inaccurate financial forecasts and societal complexity. Unique-model and multiple-model representation of reality |
| Lehti: | Human Systems Management
1989 : VOL. 8:2, p. 145-154 |
| Asiasana: | FINANCIAL FORECASTING MODELS PRICING MARKETS MONEY MARKETS |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | Forecasters can sometimes exert influence over the events they are predicting. The possibilities for such an internal validation of forecasts in the financial markets are explored. This type of validation comes from model multiplicity and from an unequal closeness of actors to the price determination process. The predictive success of a forecaster's model depends on his closeness to traders. A trader's model in turn may differ from the forecaster's model if he does not adopt the forecaster's predictions. As a contrast, the economic theoretician's assumptions are explained. The low forecast accuracy of experts in the case of the financial markets is clarified. The recognition of model multiplicity may resolve this confusing problem. |
SCIMA