haku: @indexterm FINANCIAL ANALYSIS / yhteensä: 599
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| Tekijä: | Chopra, V. K. |
| Otsikko: | Why so much error in analysts' earnings forecasts ? |
| Lehti: | Financial Analysts' Journal
1998 : NOV/DEC, VOL. 54:6, p. 35-42 |
| Asiasana: | Earnings Forecasting Financial analysis Growth USA |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | Wall Street analysts tend to be too optimistic about the earnings prospects of companies they follow. The average consensus 12-month EPS growth forecast is 17.7 %, being more than twice the actual growth rate. In aggregate, forecasts are 11.2 % above actual earnings at the start of a year and are revised downward continuously in the course of the year. For the full study period reported, the percentage of 12-month earnings estimates revised downward exceeded the percentage revised upward, on average, by 4.4 % monthly. Since 1993, however, the quality of analyst forecasts seems to have improved. An intuitive explanation of the change is provided, and ways in which analysts can use the explanation to improve portfolio performance are suggested. |
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