haku: @author Bunn, D. / yhteensä: 8
viite: 2 / 8
| Tekijä: | Salo, A. Bunn, D. |
| Otsikko: | Decomposition in the assessment of judgmental probability forecasts |
| Lehti: | Technological Forecasting and Social Change
1995 : MAY, VOL. 49:1, p. 13-26 |
| Asiasana: | PROBABILITY FORECASTING SOCIOLOGY |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | Although the use of decomposition has won wide support as a means of improving the defensibility of judgmental forecasts, many decomposition techniques have encountered difficulties in ensuring the consistency of the respondent's probability statements. The more theoretically attractive methods have often become too complicated for practical assessment. In response to these difficulties, the authors present an approach that aggregates judgmental forecasts and forecast adjustments based on partial probability about conditioning scenarios and guides the respondents into consistent replies. |
SCIMA