haku: @indexterm RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS / yhteensä: 97
viite: 20 / 97
| Tekijä: | Rötheli, T. F. |
| Otsikko: | Pattern recognition and procedurally rational expectations |
| Lehti: | Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization
1998 : SEP, VOL. 37:1, p. 71-90 |
| Asiasana: | RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS MODELS MARKETS PSYCHOLOGY |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | In the paper, a model of pattern recognition is presented for assessing probabilities of future events. Experimental data from a time series setting indicates that the proposed model gives a better account of subjects' expectation formation than the hypothesis of rational expectations. Parameter estimates suggest that individuals typically modify their behavior only with respect to some patterns while keeping other pattern responses unchanged in the light of new data. When the individual data are used to simulate an asset market several features of speculative markets emerge: large deviations of the market price from the fundamental price, price movements in times without innovation in the fundamentals, and large and variable levels of trading activities. These regularities are shown to be consistent with pattern induced changes in expectations. |
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