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| Tekijä: | Tonn, B. E. Peretz, J. H. |
| Otsikko: | Method for Gauging Limits to Foresight in Environmental Decision Making |
| Lehti: | Technological Forecasting and Social Change
2001 : MAY, VOL. 67:1, p. 35-53 |
| Asiasana: | FORECASTING ENVIRONMENT DECISION MAKING |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | This article presents a mathematically-based method for gauging the limits to foresight in environmental decision making. The method will be useful to environmental decision makers for structuring environmental problems that are characterized by potentially crippling amount of uncertainty. The method produces as output a measure of determinateness (i.e., the amount of information) for each key decision variable based on inputs of lower and upper cumulative distribution functions for each variable for periods into the future. A visualization of the outputs is presented that effectively communicates the limits to foresight for key variables in the analysis. How this information can be used to guide decision strategy is illustrated through an example: strategic planning for municipal solid waste recycling. |
SCIMA