haku: @author Lee, M. / yhteensä: 26
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| Tekijä: | Lee, M. Smith, G. |
| Otsikko: | Regression to the Mean and Football Wagers |
| Lehti: | Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
2002 : OCT, VOL. 15:4, p. 329-342 |
| Asiasana: | REGRESSION ANALYSIS TEAM WORK PERFORMANCE APPRAISAL SPORTS INDUSTRY |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | The performance of a professional football team depends on its ability and also on chance-unpredictable variations in the opponent's play calling, the players' health, the officiating, and even the proverbial bounces of the football. When such chance events make observed performance an imperfect measure of ability, observed differences in performance tend to exaggerate underlying differences in abilities. Football performances are an imperfect measure of abilities, and consequently exaggerate differences in abilities. The skills of those football teams that perform the best and the worst are not really that far from average; thus their future performances regress to the mean. Betting data indicate that gamblers do not fully account for this regression. |
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